By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia In its proposed rule on events contracts, the CFTC issued a strong denunciation of war markets, but explicitly opted not to define
Improving Forecasting through Political Betting Freedom
Mission
The Coalition for Political Forecasting aims to liberalize regulations on political betting in order to serve the public interest.
About CPF
The Coalition for Political Forecasting is a community of researchers, traders, and philanthropists that sees real-money prediction markets and other betting platforms as advanced forecasting tools that can help humanity navigate an uncertain future.
The Coalition seeks to advise the policymaking community on how betting on political events can improve democratic institutions, promote economic stability, and facilitate innovative research.
Who We Are
Pratik Chougule
Executive Director
Pratik Chougule has been involved with political betting for more than twenty years as a trader, political analyst, and content creator. He is the host of Star Spangled Gamblers, a podcast focused on political betting.
His commentary and analysis on political prediction markets has appeared in a variety of publications including Forbes, The Washington Post, and Vice News. Chougule graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Brown University and holds a J.D. from Yale Law School. He is an “oracle” on PredictIt, the highest echelon of trader on the site.
Mick Bransfield
Research Director
Mick Bransfield is a prediction market analyst and researcher. He is the founder and principal of Kingston Chase Consulting, LLC, a data analytics consultancy.
Mick holds a Master’s in Business Analytics from the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business and McIntire School of Commerce, and a bachelor’s in American Politics from the University of Virginia’s College of Arts and Sciences.
Board of Directors
Flip Pidot
Flip Pidot is a leader in the development, operation and study of event futures and political prediction markets, as head of the political swaps platform American Civics Exchange, producer of the prediction market content network OldBull.tv, and formerly market curator at leading political prediction market PredictIt. Flip is also founder and CIO of Sharp Square Capital, a CFTC-regulated fund manager specializing in event futures.
A graduate of Notre Dame and University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, Flip also holds a Series 3 license and is a CFA Charterholder. He is chairman of the Finance Committee of the City of Glen Cove, NY, a former corporate fraud examiner, and was a 2016 Congressional candidate in New York’s 3rd District.
Solomon Sia
Solomon Sia is a prediction market user and enthusiast and an active participant in the Effective Altruism community. Sia holds a Masters in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University and a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Carnegie Mellon University.
Blog
By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia The definition of gaming as it pertains to event contracts is ambiguous. While we favor as a policy matter a relatively narrow
By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia Although we would favor a more laissez-faire approach to event contracts than what the CFTC has pursued, we believe that a lack
By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia The CFTC remains the federal agency best positioned to exercise jurisdiction over event contracts. Since 1992, when CFTC-registered exchanges increased their listing