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Coalition for Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule was on The Julie Mason Show to Discuss Political Gambling

On July 14th, SiriusXM host and veteran White House reporter Julie Mason invited Pratik Chougule to discuss gambling on politics. Mason expressed skepticism about prediction markets on politics. She characterized insights from the markets as “really dumb and uninformed” that reflect “standard conventional wisdom” rather than being “sophisticated.” Here is how Chougule responded: There’s more …

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The Need to Define War

By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia In its proposed rule on events contracts, the CFTC issued a strong denunciation of war markets, but explicitly opted not to define war. This makes little sense to us.  Without a definition of war, event contract platforms will have little guidance on whether they can offer markets …

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Gaming Law Should Not Prohibit “Mention” and Legal Markets

By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia The definition of gaming as it pertains to event contracts is ambiguous.  While we favor as a policy matter a relatively narrow definition of gaming, we believe that each of the commissioners, as well as lawyers representing the CFTC, Kalshi, and various public interest groups, have all …

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The CFTC Remains the Best Agency to Regulate Event Contracts

By Pratik Chougule, Mick Bransfield, and Solomon Sia The CFTC remains the federal agency best positioned to exercise jurisdiction over event contracts.  Since 1992, when CFTC-registered exchanges increased their listing of event contracts, the Commission has gradually expanded its jurisdiction over the space.  It is true that event contracts do not fall within the core …

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Coalition for Political Forecasting Comment on Proposed Amendments to CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts

info@coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org 202-860-4995 8 August 2024 Submitted via CFTC portal Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, D.C. 20581  Re: Event Contracts, RIN number 3038-AF14  We are writing on behalf of the Coalition for Political Forecasting in response to the CFTC’s request for comments on its proposal on event contracts. The Coalition …

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Kalshi’s Regulatory Incentives Are Imperfectly Aligned with the Political Betting Community

By Pratik Chougule Kalshi’s proposal to offer election contracts has not only been rejected by the CFTC, it has resulted in even stricter regulations against political betting. Kalshi’s decision to persist with a strategy that keeps inviting backlash is symptomatic of a broader issue. The company’s incentives are, at best, imperfectly aligned with those of …

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The Center For American Progress Denounces Election Contracts

By Pratik Chougule During the second CFTC comment period on Kalshi’s proposed election contracts, the Center for American Progress (CAP) submitted a letter in opposition to the proposal.  What’s significant about this to me is that CAP, unlike Public Citizen, is not a grassroots movement. They’re real insiders.  While CAP is explicitly left-wing, they’re also …

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Coalition for Political Forecasting Referenced in AFP News Report on 2024 Election Betting

AFP News journalist Nick Roll interviewed Coalition for Political Forecasting executive director Pratik Chougule in his recent report on how Americans are betting on the 2024 U.S. elections. Below is an excerpt: Political gambling expert Pratik Chougule…cohosts a betting podcast, and started an advocacy group to push for legalization. “I was a pretty true believer …

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