Political Betting Generates Limited Market Interest
Political betting lines are relatively unprofitable for both retail traders and companies in the….
Inaccurate Prediction Market Prices Have Undermined the Case for Liberalizing Regulations
A core thesis of prediction market enthusiasts is that the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ can disrupt a discourse characterized by poor….
Why the Legalization of Sports Betting Has Not Helped Political Betting
Predictions that the legalization of sports betting since the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA would lead to….
Manifold’s Platform Currency Model Is an Important Regulatory Test Case
Manifold has decided to use platform currency as opposed to fiat money or cryptocurrency, in part to avoid saddling its markets….
Consequences for Political Betting of Kalshi’s Decision to Register with the CFTC
Branding itself as the “first federally regulated exchange,” Kalshi has tried to hew as closely as possible to….
Political Event Contracts Won’t Turn the CFTC Into an “Election Cop”
Ever since Chairman Behnam raised the possibility of the CFTC turning into an “election cop” in his interview on the Odd Lots podcast, we….
Classic Injunctions Against Gaming Do Not Apply to Election Contracts
Classic ethical, moral and religious injunctions against gaming are relatively inapplicable to election contracts…
How Should CFTC-Registered Entities Address Manipulation in Election Contracts?
Manipulative and/or false reporting activity is relatively unusual in markets on the control of Congress. It is ….
Chougule’s Analysis Cited in Column Criticizing CFTC Chairman’s Concerns about Election Markets
Chougule’s Analysis Cited in Column Criticizing CFTC Chairman’s Concerns about Election Markets August 8, 2023 In his August 8 column in PlayUSA, gambling industry reporter Steve Friess criticizes CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam for voicing concerns that the agency could become an “election cop” if it approves election markets. Informed by analysis by Pratik Chougule and …
Coalition for Political Forecasting response to CFTC’s request for public comments
info@coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org202-860-4995 24 July 2023 Submitted via CFTC portalCommodity Futures Trading CommissionThree Lafayette Centre1155 21st Street NWWashington, D.C. 20581 Re: Coalition for Political Forecasting response to CFTC’s request for public comments on questions related to Kalshi’s self-certified congressional control contracts Sincerely, Pratik ChouguleExecutive Director, Coalition for Political Forecasting Flip PidotBoard Member, Coalition for Political Forecasting Solomon …
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