How the American Civics Exchange Is Innovating on the Traditional Prediction Market Model
Entrepreneurs are building political betting platforms that operate under different regulatory restrictions from real-money prediction….
PredictIt’s Cavalier Approach to the CFTC
It is little surprise that the CFTC withdrew PredictIt’s no-action letter in light of how cavalierly the company managed its….
Political Betting Generates Limited Market Interest
Political betting lines are relatively unprofitable for both retail traders and companies in the….
Inaccurate Prediction Market Prices Have Undermined the Case for Liberalizing Regulations
A core thesis of prediction market enthusiasts is that the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ can disrupt a discourse characterized by poor….
Why the Legalization of Sports Betting Has Not Helped Political Betting
Predictions that the legalization of sports betting since the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA would lead to….
Manifold’s Platform Currency Model Is an Important Regulatory Test Case
Manifold has decided to use platform currency as opposed to fiat money or cryptocurrency, in part to avoid saddling its markets….
Consequences for Political Betting of Kalshi’s Decision to Register with the CFTC
Branding itself as the “first federally regulated exchange,” Kalshi has tried to hew as closely as possible to….
Political Event Contracts Won’t Turn the CFTC Into an “Election Cop”
Ever since Chairman Behnam raised the possibility of the CFTC turning into an “election cop” in his interview on the Odd Lots podcast, we….
Classic Injunctions Against Gaming Do Not Apply to Election Contracts
Classic ethical, moral and religious injunctions against gaming are relatively inapplicable to election contracts…
How Should CFTC-Registered Entities Address Manipulation in Election Contracts?
Manipulative and/or false reporting activity is relatively unusual in markets on the control of Congress. It is ….