Blog
Kalshi’s Regulatory Incentives Are Imperfectly Aligned with the Political Betting Community
By Pratik Chougule Kalshi’s proposal to offer election contracts has not only been rejected by the CFTC, it has resulted in even stricter regulations against political betting. Kalshi’s decision to
How Public Citizen Outmaneuvered Kalshi
By Pratik Chougule The CFTC’s second public comment period on Kalshi’s proposed election contracts received seven times the number of comments it got during its first comment period back in
By Pratik Chougule During the second CFTC comment period on Kalshi’s proposed election contracts, the Center for American Progress (CAP) submitted a letter in opposition to the proposal. What’s significant
Coalition for Political Forecasting Referenced in AFP News Report on 2024 Election Betting
AFP News journalist Nick Roll interviewed Coalition for Political Forecasting executive director Pratik Chougule in his recent report on how Americans are betting on the 2024 U.S. elections. Below is
Chougule Interviewed About the Coalition for Political Forecasting
Long-time prediction market trader Chris Gillett interviewed Pratik Chougule about the Coalition for Political....
Coalition for Political Forecasting’s Chougule Cited in PlayUSA Column
[T]he entire episode has given folks like Pratik Chougule, founder of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, the jitters. Chougule, host of the Star...
Coalition for Political Forecasting Mentioned in Astral Codex Ten
Prediction markets have often existed in a regulatory gray area. A newer market, Kalshi, has tried to cooperate with regulators to become a new...
Chougule Discusses the Role of Divisive Figures and Controversial Markets in Political Betting Regulation
Revelations that Richard Hanania, a prominent member of the political betting community, had written edgy commentaries under a pseudonym sparked a...
Chougule Interviews Plaintiff in PredictIt’s Lawsuit Against the CFTC
Pratik Chougule interviewed Richard Hanania, a plaintiff in PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC, on a recent...
https://youtu.be/tFNw8J0Vy6E?si=ss2In0La3QcCRI7u
Coalition for Political Forecasting Cited in Op-Ed on Bureaucrat Prediction Records
Coalition for Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule cited the Coalition in his September 9, 2023….
A Research Agenda for Political Prediction Market Regulation
Although data from PredictIt has furthered academic research on political prediction markets, the novel dilemmas associated with….
Regardless of how regulations evolve in the space, retail traders will have opportunities of….
How the American Civics Exchange Is Innovating on the Traditional Prediction Market Model
Entrepreneurs are building political betting platforms that operate under different regulatory restrictions from real-money prediction….
PredictIt’s Cavalier Approach to the CFTC
It is little surprise that the CFTC withdrew PredictIt’s no-action letter in light of how cavalierly the company managed its….
Political Betting Generates Limited Market Interest
Political betting lines are relatively unprofitable for both retail traders and companies in the….
Inaccurate Prediction Market Prices Have Undermined the Case for Liberalizing Regulations
A core thesis of prediction market enthusiasts is that the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ can disrupt a discourse characterized by poor….
Why the Legalization of Sports Betting Has Not Helped Political Betting
Predictions that the legalization of sports betting since the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA would lead to….
Manifold’s Platform Currency Model Is an Important Regulatory Test Case
Manifold has decided to use platform currency as opposed to fiat money or cryptocurrency, in part to avoid saddling its markets….
Consequences for Political Betting of Kalshi’s Decision to Register with the CFTC
Branding itself as the “first federally regulated exchange,” Kalshi has tried to hew as closely as possible to….