On July 14th, SiriusXM host and veteran White House reporter Julie Mason invited Pratik Chougule to discuss gambling on politics.
Mason expressed skepticism about prediction markets on politics. She characterized insights from the markets as “really dumb and uninformed” that reflect “standard conventional wisdom” rather than being “sophisticated.”
Here is how Chougule responded:
There’s more research to be done, but the results are mixed.
Sometimes you find that the markets are surprisingly accurate—more accurate than the conventional wisdom.
Other times, they’re totally off-based.
So my view is not that these markets are a perfect barometer.
All my view really is is that they’re one more way that we can help understand politics and current events.
They react quickly to breaking news events.
Over time, they may be one more tool that we have in trying to predict the future, which is very hard in politics.
You can listen to the whole interview here.
