Predictions that the legalization of sports betting since the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA would lead to a similar cascade in the political betting arena have not materialized. In some respects, the opposite has occurred. 

Once the Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act on federalism grounds, numerous states moved to legalize sports betting, undeterred by the possibility of future enforcement actions by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act. 

Yet many of these same advocates of sports betting have refused to endorse political betting, fearing that the “taint” of political markets could undermine support for sports betting and other legal lines that generate far more profit than what political lines would bring in even under the most optimistic projections. 

At the same time, concerns about the power, tactics, and agendas of the sports betting lobby have created a more skeptical outlook among politicians and regulators toward the gaming industry generally, further adversely impacting political betting interests.

The refusal of the states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories to follow suit on political betting leaves unsettled the question of whether the political betting industry could pursue a regulatory pathway similar to the one undertaken by the sports betting industry. 

Somewhat paradoxically, Casino.org reporter Steve Bittenbender, who has covered both the sports and political betting industries extensively, believes that the political betting industry might benefit from greater federal regulation of sports betting. 

This is because sports betting regulation could potentially fall under the purview of a single regulatory body. 

Such a body could, in turn, permit sports betting operators to offer political lines. 

The earliest Bittenbender foresees this happening is in the run-up to the 2028 U.S. elections.

Pratik Chougule is the executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting. Solomon Sia is a board member of the Coalition for Political Forecasting. This post is adapted from the authors’ report, “Political Betting Regulation in the United States: Pathways to Liberalization.”